Now that winter is officially here... let's take a look at how it may shape up weather wise!
We are currently in what is called a neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation. The ENSO refers to the surface temperatures around the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The ENSO’s other two phases are El Niño which is when the equator Pacific ocean temps are warmer than normal and La Niña which refers to cooler than normal temps in this region.
The neutral phase normally brings a winter with wide swings in temperatures here in Georgia. This means we can expect extremely cold periods which may range in the single digits in the mountains the lower 20s in south and coastal Georgia. Between the extremely cold periods, warm temperatures in the 70s can be expected. The Climate Prediction Center has our area in a slightly above normal average for the January-March extended forecast period.
All devastating freezes that have affected the Southeast have occurred during neutral winters. Devastating freezes for Georgia have been ones with temperatures below zero in the mountains, around 10 degrees along the coast and single digits in south Georgia. So this year would appear to be favorable for such extreme cold air to penetrate the Peach state.
Not every neutral winter has a devastating freeze, but the odds are greatly increased.
Rainfall during neutral winters is very variable. Some neutral winters are very wet while others are very dry. At this time, we don’t have a good feel which way it will go. It primarily depends on the number of low-pressure systems that develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and move across the state. Currently, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting our area to have well below normal rainfall for the January-March extended period.
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