Georgia Tech Study shows New Form of El Nino could Increase Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Researchers in Georgia have concluded a new type of El Nino could mean more hurricanes in the Atlantic basin along with a higher frequency of landfalling storms.

The study, appearing in the most recent edition of the journal Science, was researched by Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Also authoring the work was department chair Judy Curry and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim.

El Nino conditions develop when sustained sea surface temperatures 1/2 degree celcius or greater occur across the tropical Pacific Ocean. If these conditions continue for 5 months or more... it is then labeled a full blown El Nino. Usually El Nino's occur at an interval ranging from every 2 to 7 years. When formed... it can last for a year or two.

El Nino usually results in diminished hurricane activity in the Atlantic. However, the study shows there may be a new form of El Nino.

This new form of El Nino is known as El Nino Modoki, from the Japanese meaning of "similar, but different". According to the study, it forms in the central Pacific, instead of the eastern Pacific where the typical El Nino forms. This initial warming in the central Pacific is linked to greater number of hurricanes and a higher probability of landfalling storms along the Gulf coast and the coast of central America.

Why the form of El Nino is changing is unclear to the researchers. They say it could just be natural variability. Or possibly a response to global warming.

But regardless, if the trend continues, then El Nino years could be much more active in the Atlantic basin. Not something those of us who live on the coast want to see.

The researchers at Georgia Tech are now looking at La Nina. This is the opposite of El Nino... where waters in the central and eastern Pacific tropical waters are cooler than normal.

*** On a side note... so far the hurricane season has been quiet. As of today... July 6... no tropical storms have occured so far in the Atlantic basin. The first storm to develop will be named ANA.