A change in the tropical Pacific Ocean water temperatures has led to the declaration from NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) that a El Nino has arrived and is expected to persist this year and through next winter.
El Nino is the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters. This brings a significant influence on planetary weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries.
The Climate Prediction Center noted weekly eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures were at least 1.0 degree C above average at the end of June. Further strengthening is possible. The most recent El Niño occurred about 3 years ago.
El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Currently, NOAA projects a near normal 2009 hurricane season. Forecasters say 9 to 14 named storms will form, of which 4 to 7 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes. However, the next seasonal outlook update issued August 6 may be revised downward considering this new development.
In El Nino events, often you see more winter precipitation than normal across the dry southwest states, less than average snowfall to the northern states, and a reduction of wildfire activity in Florida.
The current 3 month outlook for summer is near normal temperatures and slightly above normal temperatures.
I will continue to keep you updated to changes and developments of this El Nino.
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