As we begin the last full week of October... the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are very quiet weather wise and tropical cyclone development is not expected at least over the next 48 hours and likely through this new work week as well.
As a matter of fact... conditions over the past several weeks have been very unfavorable for development... and I expect this to continue through the end of the month and most likely continue through November. The combination of strong wind shear values in the upper levels of the atmosphere and lots of dry continental air pushing off the United States is the main reason for the lack of tropical activity. Frequent strong frontal pushes into the Atlantic basin will only re-enforce this trend through at least early November.
Another reason tropical cyclone development this November seems rather unlikely includes a developing El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino usually brings harsh upper level winds in the tropical Atlantic which makes for lower than average likely-hood of tropical cyclone development.
So far in the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season... we have had 2 hurricanes and 6 tropical storms. If this holds through the remainder of the season (hurricane season ends November 30), this would rate as a below normal tropical cyclone year.
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