Winter Weather Event Possible Inland Late Sunday Night into Monday

Looking at the latest computer guidance… including the NAM… GFS and SREF… there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in how the winter weather event will exactly play out. But one thing that does seem a little more certain this afternoon… I don’t look for a significant event. Keep in mind… I do expect some ice/snow accumulation well inland of the coast… and this could cause some travel issues late Sunday night and Monday morning … particularly for the commute.

Here is the latest weather discussion as of Saturday afternoon… an area of upper level low pressure is pushing east across the desert southwest and extreme north Mexico. A large and impressive plume of moisture can be seen on water vapor imagery streaming E/NE from the Pacific Ocean across Mexico into the western Gulf of Mexico.

By tomorrow morning low pressure at the surface will be organizing over south Texas… then move to a position across the coastal waters of Louisiana by evening. Monday this storm will move from a position off the Florida panhandle to along the border of southeast Georgia and north Florida. It will then pull NE and be situated off the coast of Myrtle Beach Tuesday morning.

High pressure is providing the cold air we have right now…. Its situated over Minnesota… and will continue ridging in through Sunday evening… before retreating northeast Sunday night and Monday as low pressure approaches.

It’s always a difficult forecast anytime you deal with retreating cold air… slightly milder air working in from off the Atlantic… and throw in moisture… but here are the basics of what I expect to play out.

Precip begins late Sunday night…. Midnight or after

Closer to the coast… Savannah… Beaufort… Richmond Hill… Ludowici and Jesup a cold rain possibly mixed with sleet. Areas further inland such as Ridgeland… Rincon… Pembroke… Sylvania… Hampton… Statesboro… Claxton… Millen and Vidalia will be snow… sleet and freezing rain.

Monday Morning

The rain/sleet/snow line will push inland. A cold rain will fall on the coast…and in Beaufort… Savannah… Richmond Hill... Ludowici… Jesup.  Ridgeland will change to all rain… at least by mid morning.

Mixed precipitation will gradually change over west of I-95… in areas like Rincon… Pembroke… Claxton. Statesboro and Vidalia will be borderline Monday morning… potentially staying all freezing and producing mixed precip well into the morning.

In areas like Sylvania… Hampton… Millen (far inland) these are areas that have the greatest threat for holding onto freezing temps at the surface… and this means snow… sleet and freezing rain gradually changing over to just freezing rain as the atmosphere begins to warm aloft but the surface cold air remains in place. This is where ice could become a problem.

Monday Afternoon

Rain all areas…. Except…. a very small chance that early in the afternoon some freezing rain might still be occurring in and around the Statesboro and Vidalia areas.

Hampton and Sylvania could see some freezing rain linger through middle afternoon before the changeover to all rain begins.

Of greatest concern for a longer duration freezing rain event would be out in the Millen area… including western Screven and Jenkins counties. These areas could see freezing rain linger throughout the afternoon.

Precip comes gradually to an end most areas by later Monday evening into Monday night.

A winter storm watch has been posted by the National Weather Service for Toombs and Emanuel counties for the threat for accumulating snow and ice. Winter weather advisories may eventually be issued for other areas along and north of I-16 (inland of the coast).

Potential Impacts

Significant accumulation of snow and/or ice now seems unlikely. But some small accumulations will occur well inland of the Atlantic shore.

Here is the rundown we expect as of now….

                                       Snow Accumulation                          Ice Accumulation

Savannah                                  0                                                     None

Richmond Hill                             0                                                     None

Beaufort                                    0                                                     None

Ridgeland                                 Trace                                               Slight

Rincon                                      Trace                                                Slight

Pembroke                                 Trace                                               Slight

Ludowici                                      0                                                    None

Jesup                                          0                                                     None

Sylvania                                    1 inch                                            .1 to .2 inch

Hampton                                   ¾ inch                                          .1 to .2 inch

Statesboro                                ¾ inch                                              Slight

Claxton                                     ½ inch                                               Slight

Millen                                     1 and ½ inch                                   .1 to .2 inch

Vidalia                                        ¾ inch                                              Slight

Travel concerns could develop in areas above that get small ice/snow accumulations. Bridges and overpasses freeze easily so be mindful of them… particularly along and north of I-16 inland of the coast.

One other note… there are small probabilies that a significant ice storm could occur in Jenkins and Screven counties…. with maybe even up to .25 inch ice accumulations or more. This would cause a concern for some widespread power outages in those 2 counties.

That is the latest and greatest I have for you.

Stay tuned to StormTeam 3 tonight and this weekend with David Ernst… and I will be in Monday morning for the latest on Coastal Sunrise.

I will work on another blog tomorrow by late Sunday afternoon with any small scale refinements needed. Thanks for reading this and tune into WSAV TV… WSAV.com… and WSAV’s Facebook page for additional information.