National Hurricane Preparedness Week: Hurricane Forecasting

Part of the mission of the Tropical Prediciton Center is to save lives and protect property. This is done by issuing watches, warnings, forecasts and analysis of hazardous wather in the tropics.

The Tropical Prediction Center is comprised of...The National Hurricane Center, The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch and The Technical Support Branch.

Your National Weather Service in Charleston and Jacksonville is also important in the forecast process.

The National Hurricane Center and the Charleston and Jacksonville National Weather Service have various roles in the forecast process.

Observations include satellites, buoys, reconnaissance aircrafft and radar. This is the basis for all forecast and warning products issued.

Analysis...the various observations are checked for quality, analyzed and put into a suite of computer models.

Model Guidance and Interpretation...the computer models take in the observations and perform millions of calculations to generate predictions of hurricane behavior and the general conditions of the atmosphere in which the hurricane is embedded. The model results are packaged as guidance by the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service Offices...and for evaluation and use in the forecast and warning process.

Coordination...forecasts and warnings are coordinated between the hurricane center and the National Weather Service to provide consistency.

Product Generation...once the coordination and collaboration process reaches group consensus, forecast and warning products are released to the public.

Product Dissemination...timely and reliable dissemination is critical to the protection of life and property.

Coordination with others...The Hurricane Center and your National Weather Service work with community leaders to determine whether the forecast and warning products issued were useful and how they can provide even better service in the future.

Know the difference between a watch and warning...
A HURRICANE WATCH indicates the possibility of hurricane conditions within a particular coastal area within 36 hours. This should trigger your family disaster plan to take protective measures.

A HURRICANE WARNING indicates that sustained winds of at least 74mph are expected within 24 hours or less. Once the warning has been issued, your family should be in the process of comopleting protective actions and deciding on where the safest location is to be during the storm.