Could the Earthquake Have Been Predicted?

Earthquakes are not unknown to the Caribbean. In 1962, a massive quake largely destroyed Port Royal, Jamaica, by causing it to sink into the sea. Approximately, one dozen major earthquakes have happened in the Caribbean over the past 500 years.

Not only that but years of past tropical storm damage have already affected Haiti, making yesterday's earthquake even more devastating for the vulnerable region.

For example, four hurricanes hit Haiti in a span of just three weeks during the latter part of summer 2008.
*Tropical Storm Fay brought damaging winds and heavy rainfall, which severely impacted the rice and banana crop. Fifty people were killed.
*Hurricane Gustav caused landslides, which destroyed homes and killed 77 people
*Hurricane Hanna caused more flooding and mudslides, and more than 500 people died
*Hurricane Ike caused additional flooding, and the storm killed 74 Haitians

This next direct hit, however, was in the form of an earthquake. And this earthquake's intensity surprised many experts.

"It's quite strange" from a historical perspective, said Julie Detton, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey.

The Haiti earthquake was caused by the release of seismic stresses that had built up around two tectonic plates. The motions of these plates create what are known as strike-slip faults, where two sections of Earth's crust are grinding past each other in opposite directions.

"The Caribbean plate is moving eastward with respect to the North American plate," Detton said.

So...since we know this information, the question is...could this earthquake have been predicted? I mean, we can predict hurricanes, blizzards and even volcanoes. Earthquakes, however, are largely undetectable until just seconds before they occur.

The only predictions we have right now are considered longterm. The problem is, long-term forecasting does not do much to keep people from putting themselves in harm's way. If it did, nobody would live in California or Mexico City or even parts of Japan.

What is needed is short-term forecasting on the order of weeks, days or even hours. But since earthquakes don't provide indications with a foreshock or an electrical signal or a water signal or anything else, earthquake prediction is extremely difficult.

What then can you do? Countries need to improve building codes, reinforce infrastructure and zone some areas as unsuitable for development. It's not the same as a prediction, but this could spare one's life or home.