Slight Risk of Severe Weather on Sunday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Southeast...

By: David Ernst | WSAV-TV
Published: January 24, 2010

A very large upper trough/low will continue progressing slowly eastward across the central, and eventually into the eastern U.S.

A strengthening surface low is forecast to shift northward from the mid to the upper Mississippi Valley during Sunday, while a trailing cold front sharpens as it moves eastward across the southeast U.S./Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front, dewpoints in the 60s will stream northward; but with very weak lapse rates aloft (temps only cooling slowly with height) expect only marginal destabilization of the atmosphere.

While this lack of instability will be a limiting factor, very strong winds with favorable turning of wind direction with height is forecast across the expanding warm sector (area south of the warm front, but ahead of the cold front; this will include all of the Coastal Empire and Lowcountry on Sunday). While sinking air overhead early in the day should limit storms before the cold front arrives, lift along the advancing front should support a squall line. Storms should increase through midday as the front sharpens and continues toward the southeast U.S. coast through the remainder of Sunday. Instability should remain insufficient for a large hail threat, and while wind shear would support supercells/tornadoes, the expected lack of cellular warm sector thunderstorms should limit this potential as well. The greatest severe threat will be locally damaging winds as a convective line crosses the slight risk area.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather on Sunday

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